On the brink of a Third World War

Brig. (R) Nadir Mir

It seems that 2012 onwards, the world is on the brink of Third World War. All sane and peace loving men would pray that it is averted. For, the horoscope of the times, points towards a global catastrophe in the making. The guns of August 1914 – First World War – paled in front of the Panzer Blitzkrieg of September 1939 – Second World War. The Third World War during the Cold War was averted between the Nato and the Warsaw Pact forces. If a war breaks out in 2012 onwards, nukes shall speak and, tragically, billions may die; it will most likely be global. This apocalyptic scenario may yet come to pass, unless it is stopped in its tracks.

Opposing alliances: The US globalists-led Nato still wants to dominate the world, despite the disaster in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is not only that the Western world’s global dominance stands challenged, but also the march of history may be reversed. Since the 1500s scientific discoveries, industrialisation, political revolutions, colonialism, and technological ascendency, the world has been controlled by Western powers. The British Empire, Napoleon’s France, Hitler’s Germany and, more recently, the US have all been part of the Western world’s bid for global hegemony or control. Now the West is really in decline. The USA – the great power and land of mass production – faces economic stagnation, if not full decline. The EU faces its own economic predicament. Against this backdrop, some Europeans and Americans find the idea of a powerful Germany leading Europe as unacceptable, so far. The two wars were fought – among other reasons – mainly to prevent Germany from its rightful place under the sun. An intra-European conflict may be brewing for the leadership of Europe, even as the US-Nato alliance conflicts with the Russia-China dialectic alliance.

The US geostrategy has been embroiled in Afghanistan and Iraq; now it seeks to extend the war to Iran-Pakistan. Of course, the real war is against Russia and China, the opposing alliance. Washington sees China rising, Russia resurgent, Islamic world defiant (with Arab Spring likely to turn anti-West), Israel endangered, besides Western economic decline.

The presidential elections in America are upping the war ante, forcing President Barack Obama to strike Iran. New Delhi seeks Washington’s support to denuke, balkanise, and de-Islamise Pakistan, before USA’s departure from Afghanistan. Meanwhile Israel is straining at the leash before Iran develops the nuclear arsenal. This will change the strategic balance followed by nuclear Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt.

In Afghanistan, the US seeks to retain a 25,000 strong force for the denuclearisation of Iran and Pakistan. It may seek independence of Balochistan (with Indian support). A clash with Pakistan is likely though not inevitable. Delhi wants to use American power to fight Pakistan, but absurdly believes it can escape the nuclear conflagration. The war with Iran is even nearer – perhaps, 2012. The US and Nato may attack Iran followed by Pakistan or both at the same time. An Israeli attack on Iran is even more likely and Indian attack on Pakistan (Cold Start) always remains a possibility.

Russia and China are allies against the US-Nato geo-strategy (Iran and Pakistan are joining this alliance). China is rising economically, and Russia is resurgent strategically. After Iraq and Afghanistan, they have seen the US-Nato model of regime change in Libya and Syria by sponsoring local militants. In Russia, President Putin accused the US of instigating the opponents of United Russia; in China, it used India to ferment trouble in Xinjiang, Tibet etc. All this is unifying the alliance of Heartland powers Russia-China and Rimland state actors Iran-Pakistan into anti-US-Nato alliance. But the events are moving too fast! The Mayan Prophesy of 2012 as a ‘catastrophic year’ approaches. The US-Nato-India clash with Pakistan or US-Nato-Israel clash with Iran will lead by default or design to a multi-regional war.

The combined geopolitical space of Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran-Iraq backed by Russia-China is beyond the US-Nato reach. A war against Iran could be catastrophic, but against Pakistan it could be dooms day! In fact, a war against Pakistan is very complicated plus suicidal!

Firstly, Pakistan is neither threatening, nor attacking anybody. It is on high moral ground, despite USA’s propaganda about the security of its nuclear arsenal.

Secondly, Pakistan will defend itself at any level – sub conventional (asymmetrical), conventional (armed forces), above conventional (nuclear –WMD).

Thirdly, Pakistanis are united to defend the motherland and fight the foreign invaders. The people and political parties want an end to the Afghan war and peace in Pakistan.

Fourthly, Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Russia will support Pakistan, despite diverse strategic interests.

Anyhow, the Muslim world would revolt as war with Iran and Pakistan becomes apparent. The initiators of the attack will be burnt by the flames they help ignite themselves (albeit radioactive fires).

Geopolitics of peace is the solution: The US-Nato must relent on Afghanistan; of course, no war with Iran and no interference in Balochistan. The alternative is too horrible to contemplate.

Besides the innocent people of Iran and Pakistan, the people in Europe and USA are being duped by the neocons and globalists. Shocked when the bastion of capitalism, Wall Street came under siege and fearing rapid collapse, war abroad is their illogical choice. Even in Israel, half of the population is against the war. Overall, the good Jewish people, with their historical sense of survival seek peace and security. Pakistan is not anti-Semitic at all, but has deep sympathy with the people in Palestine. Indeed, peace in the Middle East would be welcome to all. The globalists, however, are adamant to drive the ‘American Titanic’ into the global iceberg. But this war will be self-defeating for all!

A new paradigm shift is needed, rather than beating the drums of war. The Russians have played a great role to deter the US war hawks, aided by the peace-loving Chinese. The Germans and other anti-war Europeans, besides sane people in the US must join hands to abort this global conflagration.

Russia’s key role in global peace, security for Israel, no attack on Iran, establishment of the Palestine state, US-Nato exodus from Afghanistan, no interference in Balochistan, return of Kashmir to Pakistan, US-China amity, all have to be part of the geopolitical peacemaking and war avoidance. Indeed, the alternative global nuclear war is too apocalyptic to contemplate.

The writer is a retired Brigadier of the Pakistan Army and is the author of the book ‘Gwadar on the Global Chessboard’